IEA Forecasts Renewables to Overtake Coal as Top Global Electricity Source by 2026

Renewable energy sources are forecast to overtake coal as the world’s largest source of electricity generation by 2026 at the latest, according to the International Energy Agency’s Electricity Mid-Year Update 2025. The agency states that renewables could surpass coal-fired output as early as 2025, depending on weather trends affecting wind and hydropower and on economic developments, or by 2026 at the latest (IEA).

Following the milestone, coal’s share of total generation is set to drop below 33% for the first time in a century. By 2026, renewables are expected to account for 36% of global power supplies, compared with 32% for coal, the fuel’s lowest share in 100 years, as detailed in reporting on the IEA forecasts (Carbon Brief).

Global electricity demand is projected to increase by an average of 3.3% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, a moderation from 4.4% growth in 2024 but still among the highest rates of the past decade. This would bring worldwide electricity consumption to a new high of over 29,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2026 (IEA). Demand growth is supported by industry, air conditioning, data centres, electrification of transport and heating, and appliances, even amid some downward revisions linked to economic outlooks.

China and India are expected to account for about 60% of global demand growth through 2026. China’s electricity use is forecast to rise 5% in 2025 and 5.7% in 2026, while India’s is projected at 4% in 2025 and 6.6% in 2026. In the United States, demand is set to grow around 2.3% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, boosted by data centres. The European Union sees more modest increases of 1.1% and 1.5%, respectively (IEA).

On the supply side, solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind are the primary drivers. Their combined share of global electricity generation is forecast to rise from 15% in 2024 to 17% in 2025 and above 19% in 2026, up from just 4% a decade earlier. Wind and solar PV together are projected to provide nearly an additional 1,000 TWh in 2026—roughly equivalent to Japan’s annual electricity consumption—and to cover over 90% of the increase in global electricity demand in 2025. Combined wind and solar generation is set to surpass 5,000 TWh in 2025 and 6,000 TWh in 2026 after exceeding 4,000 TWh in 2024 (IEA; Carbon Brief).

Global coal-fired generation is forecast to decline slightly by around 0.5% in 2025 after 1.3% growth in 2024, then contract by about 1.3% in 2026 due to continued low-emissions growth and coal-to-gas switching in various regions. Declines in China and Europe are partly offset by increases elsewhere, including the United States and India in the near term. Gas-fired generation is expected to rise 1.3% in both 2025 and 2026, reaching new highs, while nuclear generation hits records, growing by an average of close to 2% over 2025-2026, supported by restarts in Japan, new reactors in China, India and elsewhere, and strong output in the US and France (IEA).

Subsequent IEA analysis in the Electricity 2026 report confirms that total generation from renewables is overtaking coal, in line with prior forecasts. Renewable output rose rapidly in 2025, virtually matching coal-fired levels based on latest data, despite weaker hydro and wind in some regions. Renewables are forecast to grow by about 1,000 TWh annually through 2030 (solar PV alone over 600 TWh), at an 8% annual rate. Renewables and nuclear together are expected to reach around half of global electricity generation by 2030, up from 42% in 2025. Coal’s share is projected to fall to 27% by 2030 from 34% in 2025, though it remains the single largest individual fuel source while renewables take the highest overall share. Over 2026-2030, renewables, gas and nuclear are expected to meet all additional global electricity demand in aggregate, with coal-fired output declining slightly (IEA; IEA).

Power sector CO2 emissions are expected to plateau in 2025 with a slight decline in 2026 as low-emissions sources displace fossil generation (IEA).