WFP warns strengthening El Niño could push 49 million more people into acute hunger

Nearly 50 million more people in highly vulnerable communities could be pushed into acute hunger due to the strengthening El Niño weather phenomenon, the UN World Food Programme (WFP) said on 5 August 2026. Acute hunger refers to people unable to meet their daily food needs.

Early projections indicate that the 2026-2027 El Niño could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of next year, according to WFP analysis reported by UN News. After examining 45 countries already considered food insecure and vulnerable to El Niño’s effects on rainfall, temperatures, floods and droughts, the agency expects the number of acutely food-insecure people to rise from approximately 225 million to 274 million, an increase of around 22 percent, as detailed in the WFP release.

“El Niño is a massive threat to the food security of millions who are already vulnerable,” said Carl Skau, WFP’s Acting Executive Director, in the WFP statement. “The sooner we help families to prepare for these climate shocks, the greater our ability to save lives and protect livelihoods.”

El Niño is expected to peak between September and December 2026, with effects lasting through 2027 in many places due to impacts on harvests. The 2015-2016 event affected the food security of 60 to 100 million people. Parts of Central America and southern Africa are forecast to bear the brunt, with significant impacts also expected in eastern Africa and South and Southeast Asia, UN News reported.

Key regional findings from the WFP analysis include: Latin America and the Caribbean could see more than 16 million people affected, with Central America projected for the largest proportional increase at 83.1 percent. East and Southern Africa face risks of more than 18 million people seeing deteriorated food security, a 26 percent rise, particularly where households rely on rain-fed agriculture. Asia and the Pacific could see an estimated 8.2 million additional people in acute food insecurity, while West and Central Africa face a projected 12 percent increase affecting nearly six million more, according to the WFP report summary and Reuters.

A Reuters report noted an 81 percent chance of a very strong El Niño, with sea surface temperatures at their warmest since at least 1982 and potentially the strongest since 1950. Impacts will not be uniform; some areas already face below-average rainfall, flooding or extreme heat, while others will see effects during planting and harvest seasons.

WFP and partners are boosting preparedness in eight countries and have active anticipatory action plans in more than 50 countries, working with FAO, OCHA and others. Since May, WFP has triggered plans in South Sudan, Chad, Mauritania, Uganda, Guatemala and El Salvador, providing more than $14 million to support half a million people. Experiences show that every $1 invested in prevention can save $3 to $7 in future losses and response costs, UN News stated. WFP and FAO have appealed for increased support for at-risk communities.

Jean-Martin Bauer of WFP noted that global food markets entered the period in a relatively strong position after good 2025 harvests, though conflict and potential crop losses could pressure prices. Regional shortages could worsen access for vulnerable households. Reduced funding has also limited food-security data collection, complicating monitoring, according to Reuters. The analysis focuses on countries where El Niño is expected to deepen insecurity rather than areas of limited or beneficial effects.