Global shift to healthier diets could cut agriculture land-use emissions 85% by 2050, modeling study finds

A worldwide transition to healthier diets, more efficient farming practices and sharply reduced food waste could cut agriculture-related net carbon dioxide emissions from land-use change by 85% by 2050 compared with 2020 levels, according to a multi-model study published in Nature.

Researchers from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), Cornell University and 10 international modelling teams examined the implications of a food-system transformation consistent with recommendations from the 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission. The analysis compared a business-as-usual trajectory with a scenario that includes a global shift toward plant-rich “Planetary Health” diets, improvements in agricultural productivity, and a 50% reduction in food loss and waste (LSHTM; ScienceDaily).

Under the transformation pathway, global agricultural land use could fall by as much as 6% relative to current trends by 2050. The total value of livestock production is projected to decline by 42% ($630 billion) compared with 2020, with the ruminant sector (beef cattle, sheep and goats) falling by an estimated 70% ($274 billion) and roughly 400 million fewer ruminant animals worldwide. In contrast, the combined global value of vegetable, fruit, nut and legume production could rise by 57% ($890 billion) (LSHTM; EurekAlert).

Land-use change—such as clearing forests, converting grasslands or draining wetlands for agriculture—releases stored carbon. The modelling indicates that net CO2 emissions from these activities linked to agriculture could be 85% lower in 2050 than in 2020. Separate reporting of the same study notes that, relative to business-as-usual, net CO2 emissions from agriculture-related land-use change would decline by around 76% and direct non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production by about one-third (ScienceDaily; Phys.org).

Regional effects would differ. In the United States, overall agricultural production value could drop 21% ($76 billion) by 2050 versus 2020, with crop value rising 20% while livestock value falls 73%. India could see overall agricultural value rise 46% ($198 billion), driven by a 65% increase in crop production value and only an 8% decline in livestock. Europe’s agricultural production value is projected to decline 35% ($190 billion), with livestock falling 66% (LSHTM).

The 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission had previously estimated that a global shift to healthy diets could prevent about 15 million premature deaths annually. Earlier work has put the hidden costs of current food systems—including health, environmental and productivity impacts—at $10–20 trillion per year, much of it tied to unhealthy diets (LSHTM).

Lead author Dr Matt Gibson, who began the work at Cornell before joining LSHTM, noted that the changes would deliver large health and environmental benefits but would also reshape global agriculture and affect millions of farmers. Co-author Daniel Mason-D’Croz of Cornell described the scenarios as an early guide to challenges and opportunities rather than a forecast, stressing that transformation on this scale cannot wait until 2050 (ScienceDaily; The New Lede).

The models assumed a costless shift in consumer preferences toward healthier diets. The authors caution that real-world barriers include affordability, accessibility, cultural preferences and practical constraints, and that the scenarios represent only one possible pathway among many. They call for early policy action to support producers and consumers through the transition (EurekAlert; Nutrition Insight).

The peer-reviewed paper, “Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture,” appears in Nature (DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-10775-2).