Scientists develop seismic method to detect buried water ice on the Moon

A team of geologists has demonstrated that seismic waves generated by moonquakes could locate and quantify water ice buried beneath the lunar surface, offering a new tool for future exploration missions. The findings appear in the July 31, 2026, issue of Science Advances under the title “The seismic signature of lunar ice.”

Researchers from the University of Maryland, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of Hawaii report that frozen and dry lunar soil respond differently to vibrations. Ice stiffens the material, allowing seismic waves to travel two to three times faster than through dry regolith. Ice-rich zones can also reflect seismic energy, producing echoes detectable by a seismometer, according to a University of Maryland news release (eurekalert.org).

“We can use seismic waves to not just see whether ice is present but also roughly how much of it there is,” said co-author Nicholas Schmerr, an associate professor in UMD’s Department of Geological, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, in the release.

Orbital instruments primarily sample the uppermost soil layer, leaving deeper deposits poorly constrained. Water ice trapped in permanently shadowed polar craters is viewed as a key in-situ resource: it can supply drinking water, oxygen and hydrogen propellant, reducing the mass that missions must transport from Earth. NASA’s Artemis program targets crewed landings in the south polar region around 2028.

To validate the concept, the team combined three lines of evidence. Lead author Harrison Lisabeth, a rock physicist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and UMD alumnus, used a custom 15-inch cryogenic vacuum chamber called FROST attached to the Advanced Light Source. He froze simulated lunar regolith derived from crushed Arizona volcanic rock and employed X-ray microtomography to observe how ice fills microscopic pores under moon-like vacuum and temperature conditions, as detailed by Berkeley Lab (newscenter.lbl.gov).

Co-author Matthew Siegler of the University of Hawaii produced high-resolution temperature maps of the south polar region to identify craters cold enough to preserve ice over billions of years. Schmerr then ran computer simulations of small moonquakes propagating through icy subsurface layers. In all cases the ice produced clear, measurable signatures in the seismic data (sciencedaily.com).

The models extend to roughly 800 meters depth and predict distinctive signatures for different ice deposit types. “Our model provides testable hypotheses to design seismic experiments looking for water on the Moon,” Schmerr noted. The work forms part of NASA’s GEODES project and received support from the Department of Energy Office of Science.

Lunar ice also carries scientific value. Permanently shadowed craters can trap volatiles for geological timescales; because surrounding rocks date to about four billion years, the ice may record how water was delivered through the early solar system and contributed to Earth’s oceans.

Opportunities to test the predictions are approaching. China’s Chang’e-7 mission, expected to land near Shackleton Crater in late 2026, will carry a seismometer in an area with suspected ice deposits. NASA Artemis astronauts may later deploy the Lunar Environmental Monitoring Station, an instrument Schmerr helped develop. Rovers such as VIPER, equipped with percussive drills that generate seismic waves and onboard sensors, could also apply the framework.

“Our findings are laying the groundwork for an observation we’ll get in the next couple of years,” Schmerr said. “No one has physically measured the ice on the moon yet, but we now have a prediction for what to look out for.” The peer-reviewed study is available at DOI 10.1126/sciadv.adz7220 (science.org).