IEA: Morocco Projected to Hold Just 5% of Global Purified Phosphoric Acid Capacity by 2035 Despite Vast Reserves

Morocco is projected to hold just 5% of global purified phosphoric acid (PPA) production capacity by 2035, according to the International Energy Agency’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (IEA report). This comes despite the country possessing roughly 70% of the world’s known phosphate rock reserves, as detailed in the same report (IEA PDF).

PPA is a key precursor for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which accounted for 55% of the global electric car market and 90% of the battery storage market in 2025. The IEA notes that LFP battery production requires battery-grade PPA derived from phosphate rock and sulphuric acid. China currently dominates with about 70% of global PPA production in 2025 and is projected to maintain 75% of production capacity in 2035 (IEA PDF).

The United States is expected to rank third with almost 5% of capacity by 2035, followed by Canada. Together, Morocco, the United States and Canada are set to account for over 55% of planned PPA capacity outside China by that year, the agency states. However, the overall project pipeline shows limited diversification, with challenges including cost competitiveness, economies of scale favoring China, limited expertise and equipment outside dominant producers, and issues related to waste and by-product disposal (IEA PDF).

On the upstream side, Morocco currently accounts for less than 15% of global phosphate rock production despite its dominant reserves position. China leads mined supply with 45% of global output in 2025 while holding only about 5% of reserves; the United States contributes nearly 10% (IEA PDF). Morocco is also identified as one of the world’s leading producers of sulphuric acid, alongside China, the United States, India and Russia. China accounts for about 40% of global sulphuric acid output (Hespress; IEA PDF).

The IEA highlights growing Chinese investment in Morocco’s battery supply chain. Companies including Gotion, BTR, Huayou and CNGR have announced projects attracted by the country’s phosphate resources. Morocco’s trade agreements with the European Union and free trade agreement with the United States offer preferential market access for products from these projects compared with direct exports from China (IEA PDF; Hespress).

PPA prices have faced upward pressure from rising costs of sulphur, sulphuric acid and phosphate rock, including effects from Middle East disruptions and other supply constraints noted in the report. The IEA frames PPA as an increasingly important chokepoint for battery supply chains due to high concentration and strong demand growth from LFP technologies (IEA PDF).

These projections form part of the broader 2026 Outlook, which assesses market trends, investment and supply risks for critical minerals essential to energy technologies and other strategic sectors. The report was released around mid-July 2026.

Why this is uncovered

The specific projection on Morocco’s 5% share of PPA capacity was reported by Moroccan outlet Hespress shortly after the IEA release and appears in the primary IEA document. Broader coverage of the Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 occurred in outlets focused on energy and minerals risks, but the Morocco PPA detail received limited pickup in major international mainstream media, remaining primarily in the agency report, local reporting and specialist contexts.